With less than 3 days to the 2015 elections, an independent survey conducted by 2 research firms has estimated that President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would win the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, in the forthcoming presidential polls, with at least a margin of 17%.
The anecdotal appraisal was conducted by Chike Uchime of FORWARD MAGAZINE and Daniel Dickson-Okezie of Zevland Ventures Limited.
The survey, contrary to earlier projections disclosed that General Buhari’s party (the APC) would capture, the votes of the South West geo-political zone.
However, the current estimation sees President Jonathan unlocking the pathway to even out votes in that region.
In a breakdown, 24,000 sample size were used across 33 states and the FCT, to decide through an Opinion Survey who will win the presidential election.
The outcome of the research exercise was based on three critical factors:
(1) The respondents’ views on the achievements or performance of the President from 2011 to date and to see how this can affect his chances in the coming election
(2) The correlation between the outcome of the 2011 Presidential Election and the likely outcome of the 2015 Presidential Election
(3) A detailed study of the various dynamics that have taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 Presidential Election
According to the outcome of the survey, 65 percent of the respondents preferred PDP, while 31 percent favoured APC.
The analysis highlighted the dynamics that have taken place since the 2011 election.