According to reports published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Angola will surpass Nigeria as the continent’s top oil producer in 2016.
However, the production rate of Nigeria and Angola between 2014-2016 are similar, the IEA predicts Angola will overtake Nigeria as the region’s top oil producer from around 2016, a status Nigeria won’t reclaim until the mid-2020s.
The shift will in part be due to an expected increase in production in Angola, but much of it is the result of domestic issues in Nigeria.
OPEC crude oil production from 2011-2013
The IEA estimated that Nigeria currently loses 150,000 barrels a day to oil theft, the equivalent of $5 billion a year. On top of that, regulatory uncertainty the result of a seemingly-permanently stalled Petroleum Industry Bill has led to delays in investment decisions.
“What will put Nigeria second are uncertainty over the Nigerian investment framework, oil theft and governance issues,” the IEA’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol said