Two weeks, I tried to analyze some thoughts on the possibility of a Third World War. A lot has happened between then and now, especially in the same circles mentioned.
Iran announced a deal with Turkey and Brazil to secure its uranium but that failed to convince the West of its genuine intentions. The UN Security council, in a rare display of unanimity amongst the biggest veto-wielding nations, agreed on and imposed sanctions on Iran’s Revolutionary guard and other top politicians amongst others. Israel also rejected an international enquiry into the violent Flotilla raid and yet stopped another shipment headed for Gaza. A lot of topics buried for a long time are now coming to the fore again. Examples are what to do with Hamas, the role of Egypt in all this, the influence Turkey’s support or otherwise of Israel would cause and the American angle too. I would repeat what I said in my last post: I hope to high heavens we don’t witness another war on our hands, but events shaping up prove otherwise.
Very briefly, I would discuss what could well shape up to be opposing sides in the case that a war is ignited.
A. THE ALLIES:
Traditionally, this would be the US standing strong by Israel, along with most of the NATO forces. No matter what happens in the coming days, and because war involves fight and not just opinions, this would largely hold true. But a lot of other angles would pop up here.
The Eastern European countries, typically allies of the US (given their lure and acceptance of NATO membership) in deterrence of Russian threats would have a hard nut to crack. Many of them already have US bases and billions of dollars in yearly aid supplements, so they would find it hard to back out. But lately, they have grown very suspicious of the US’ cozying up to Russia and cancellation of a missile shield defense system they were collectively very inspired to support. The amount of resources they have also drained out as part of NATO commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan would also be major factors. But they would eventually fight. As allies.
Japan, which along with the US combined as a strong economic bond have recently questioned their relationship with the US. America is Japan’s lone strategic security partner and the last Prime Minister to threaten a break off of relations from the Americans lasted barely a year. He resigned two weeks ago and threw open a fierce succession race. Japan would do better to fight alongside the US as it has far more to lose than to gain in not doing so. Already China, which overtook Japan last year as the world’s second largest economy would surely not fight against Iran (whether they would fight alongside Iran is also not clear at this moment). But Japan is dealing with huge domestic issues mostly centered around their economy and political ideologies.
The EU as a block is ideologically opposed to any ambitions by any other country to own a Nuclear weapon. They would remain loyal in their support of the US, as they have largely done without committing too many resources in Afghanistan and Iraq.
South Korea and India are the other two important countries that would be very prominent on the side of the American people.
The most important angle to all these is the fact that the US will enter such a war very reluctantly, but without much option. Public opinion in the US is too unfairly tilted towards the Israeli cause. US Congress and other important organs/bodies have many influential Jews/Israeli in important positions and hundreds of lobbyists who would make it the most difficult political any US President has to make if he ever tries to dissuade the nation from backing their “puppet nation”. But Obama hates the Iran factor, and if he has to support Israel all out to get rid of that threat, he would gladly do, at his own political peril all the same.
B. THE DISSIDENTS: We can also call them the rebels who want to create the new world order, and run it!
The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries top the list. Only India is very certain to be part of the American effort going by current political trends. Russia and China have ambitions to take over the world, at the peril of the Americans and this fact, as against real support of belief in the Iranian mentality would drive them to set up opposing camps to the Americans. Additionally, this angle makes the prospects of the war all the scarier. China has the largest Army in the whole world, and Russia has the greatest stockpile of Nuclear war heads globally. That combination would send chills down the spines of the allies and may be the only deterrent to the war not blowing out on a full scale if both countries make their intentions known well before the first bombs are deployed. If Russia and China do not declare their intentions early, and join the opposing fray only after a while, doom!
Brazil would join as a matter of solidarity. Many Latin American countries (Bolivia, Venezuela and Cuba) for sure would be very open about their support for Iran and Brazil would not like to be the stand alones. These 3 countries in particular are very close to Iran and Ahmedinejad visited Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia during his last Latin American rounds. Brazil also have global ambitions and have already shown their soft spot for the Iranian cause by working alongside Turkey to secure a temporary deal on Iran’s nuclear material. Turkey would be the most confused of all. Supporting Iran’s bid would put paid to Turkey’s ambitions of ever joining the EU and this is important to them. Also, the fact that Turkey is becoming a regional power in that region would make it an attractive target to both sides who would want a solid partner.
The Arab League. With the exception of Egypt, all countries in the Arab region would mop up support for Iran. They hate Iran because of its bullish tendencies, its unintentional sparking of a nuclear arms race and because Iran is bringing a lot of negative attention to the region of late. But when compared to the threat of Israel winning the war and conquering even more Arab lands, they would choose the lesser evil and support an Arab brother. Egypt as usual will apply restraint and might only join the war depending on what transpires during the war. Egyptian public support for Hamas and disdain for Israel is not hidden. But the government views Hamas with a bad eye and is the only Arab country that has a peace treaty with Israel. They are without a doubt very strategic, politically and geographically and would choose their options very carefully.
One then wonders, what role would the African countries play? Given that a lot of regional powers are rising in the region and given Africa’s proximity to Israel (Egypt shares a border with Israel), it wont be out of place to find African countries on either side of the battle ground. The US has a better foothold here than Russia/China but a lot of other factors would emerge in influencing their support.
This is ridiculous. It is crazy. While we all preach Global peace and diplomatic resolution of all tensions, someone’s predicting a war. I am not. I have only tried to analyze a complex web of background deals and greed that drive global politics. I wish to heavens we don’t witness this war but if and when it does happen, remember to read this article again. Mid-2011, the year. Iran/Israel the cause.